What approach involves a rational method to identify the various futures that could occur?

The correct answer is scenario planning. This approach involves evaluating and preparing for various potential future scenarios based on a systematic and rational method. Scenario planning allows organizations to explore different possibilities by considering various factors that may impact their future, such as economic shifts, technological advancements, regulatory changes, and societal trends.

By constructing detailed narratives or scenarios, organizations can better anticipate challenges and opportunities, leading to more informed strategic decision-making. This process not only aids in risk management but also enhances flexibility, enabling organizations to adapt their strategies based on emerging trends and developments.

In contrast, while futures research is more focused on studying trends and making predictions about the future, scenario planning specifically emphasizes varying plausible futures to aid planning and strategy. Thus, scenario planning provides a structured way to envision and prepare for uncertainty, aligning well with the essence of the question.